It is not wise to predict the future, but I will predict anyway…
I am pretty certain that Barack Obama will win the presidential election and become the next President of the U.S. Why?
- The mid-term election in 2006 showed that voters did not like the War in Iraq, and Democrats took over the majority of the Congress mainly because of their anti-war position.
- The general people of the U.S. are now facing a very high gas price due to the unprecedented surge of oil price. This will affect the voters’ attitude toward the oil tycoons and Bush administration.
- U.S. economy is in a recession and a bad economy usually means the doom of the incumbent party in the presidential election.
- McCain still followed his old hawkish republican route, claiming this is ‘dangerous world’ and America needs more military power to defend itself. Well, he will see how many voters actually buy this talk. Even if he wants to play the role as a tough guy, I doubt there will be resources available for military expansion, with a costly war going on in Iraq.
- Yes, Obama is black, and the undercurrent of racism in American society will still cast a shadow on his historic campaign. But he presented himself not as a member of the disadvantaged black community, but as ‘Obama for America’. This will more or less avoid a racial election. No doubt more blacks will vote for him, but in the meantime, his campaign strategy as a reformer and change-bringer eased the racial negatives.
In summary, McCain will lose because of its hawkish, war-mongering stance which is no more convincing to the population at large. In contrast, Obama will win the election because his promise to bring ‘changes’ and his focus on domestic concerns and issues hungering for attention.